Archive for the ‘Weather’ Category

Weather in June 2007 for Canterbury

Sunday, July 1st, 2007

June 2007 in Canterbury was wet, most notably 19.1mm on the 7th and 26.7mm on the 19th (with 19.6mm of that falling between 1900Z and 2000Z with a maximum rate of 110.7mm/hr). The 19th was the wettest day since 23rd October 2006 and the 2nd wettest day since before September 2004. The month as a whole was the 4th wettest since before September 2004. The month was also mild, but that was characterised by consistently warm days rather than any hot days. The maximum temperature was only 24.8C on the 12th.

Table:
http://www.canterburyweather.co.uk/month/?table=1&month=6&year=2007
Charts:
http://www.canterburyweather.co.uk/month/?table=0&month=6&year=2007
Summary including daily notes:
http://www.canterburyweather.co.uk/month/?table=2&month=6&year=2007

Temperature
Mean            16.6 °C    (+2.3 degC*)
Mean Max        20.8 °C    (+2.1 degC*)
Abs. Max        24.8 °C    (12th)
Mean Min        12.5 °C    (+2.6 degC*)
Abs. Min         6.8 °C    (26th)

Rain
Total           79.5 mm    (153%*)
Days >  0.2mm   13   days
Days >  2.0mm    8   days
Days > 20.0mm    1   days
Max Rain (Day)  26.7 mm    (19th)
Max Rate       110.7 mm/hr (19th)

Pressure
Mean          1009.9 mb
Max           1023.7 mb
Min            993.7 mb

No wind comparisons are mentioned here owing to inadequate siting of the
anemometer.

*Compared with 1971-2001 averages at Wye.

Record Breaking Heat in New York

Saturday, January 6th, 2007

Hot and Cold WeatherIt’s January. But you could have fooled many people who were in New York today where t-shirts and shorts were in order as temperatures rose to record-breaking heights. The average maximum temperature in New York in January is 3.1°C (37°F), but today temperatures exceeded that by a whole 19°C (66°F). In fact, at La Guardia airport, the temperature actually peaked at 22.2°C (72.0°F).

Some people would say that it’s a sign of global warming. However, it is not possible to attribute a single exceptional event to a change in climate. Instead, the overall picture has to be taken. The consensus is that temperature are on the up across much of the world. Certainly here in England the temperatures have been high and a number of long-standing records for high temperatures have also been broken recently.

Weather in Canterbury: 2006 Annual Summary

Monday, January 1st, 2007

Overall, 2006 was hotter, colder and wetter than 2005: the 3 warmest days since before September 2004 occurred during a 1-week spell in July (33.6C on the 19th, 32.6C on the 26th and 32.3C on the 21st). -6.4C on the 23rd January was colder than at any time in 2005. August was the wettest month (110.5mm); 23rd October was the wettest day (28.2mm) and September was the driest month (17.0mm) since before September 2004.

Of particular interest is the total rainfall situation, especially seeing as we are still restricted on water usage here in Canterbury. The good news is that there was more rain in 2006 than in 2005 - 572.8mm compared with 486.9mm. However, the average normal rainfall total for this part of Kent is around 727mm, so there’s still a significant deficit. In fact, the cumulative deficit for 2005 and 2006 is a staggering 394mm.

Weather in Canterbury: December 2006

Monday, January 1st, 2007

As is becoming normal, December was another month that was warmer than average, mainly due to a large number of very warm days. 17 days exceeded 10C (compared with 5 in December 2005), including 14.4C on the 4th and 13.9C on the 30th. Eight of the ten warmest December days from the last three years were recorded during December 2006. The month was characterised by two types of weather: wet and windy from the 1st to the 17th; cold, overcast and often foggy from the 18th to the 28th followed by a return to wet and windy weather from the 29th. A significant anticyclone caused the pressure to rise to its highest level since before September 2004, reaching 1042.3mb on the 22nd. This spell of weather was cool and overcast with a number of days of significant fog or low cloud. Rainfall was just short of average.

Christmas Weather 2006, Part Three

Tuesday, December 19th, 2006

Just 6 days to go to the big day and I guess it’s close enough now to be a little more certain with the forecast for Christmas Day. My last look at Christmas Day was a little over a week ago and at that point, strong westerly winds looked to be on the cards. However, the forecast has completely changed!

The still, cool weather that we have experienced for the last couple of days (and has produced some atmospheric foggy days) looks set to continue for a few more days. So more fog and frost to come. This is all caused by a large area of high pressure which at times looks set to top 1040mb - the air is effectively stagnating and not moving anywhere.

The high pressure dominates the forecast until Christmas Day. At the moment, Christmas Day looks to be the day when the weather transitions to a more mobile setup, but it currently looks as though the change to milder weather will happen after Christmas Day and by Boxing Day a south-westerly wind will have blown away the stagnant air.

Will it snow? Probably not. Although rain will move in and the air is cold, it doesn’t move in quick enough and the freezing level is probably way too high anyway. However, Christmas Day does look like being a day of transition, the timing of which is naturally variable.

If the forecast changes significantly, I will update my view.

Christmas Weather 2006, Part Two

Monday, December 11th, 2006

I updated my Christmas Weather 2006 forecast on 19th December. Go there for a more likely forecast!

I gave a little teaser about the possible weather on Christmas Day 2006 a week or so ago. The first charts to appear on some medium-range forecast models are showing Christmas Day now. Here’s today’s 12am GFS run for 12am on Christmas Day:

Christmas Day Weather 2006

The chart shows low pressure to the north of Scotland and high pressure over the Azores. This would lead to westerly winds for the whole country, keeping temperatures up. Indeed, the associated temperature chart shows very high temperatures ranging from 10°C for northern Scotland to about 13°C for south-west England. With such a mobile setup, fronts moving from the west are likely to bring rain to all at some point over Christmas, with more for the north and west as usual. There doesn’t seem to be much chance of anything remotely wintery!

In the run-up to Christmas, a short cooler spell with fairly widespread frosts looks possible from 18th-20th December, but otherwise it looks like continuing as December has already started.

Of course, there is still two weeks to Christmas, so anything could happen. In fact, the one thing that I would be certain of is that the chart shown above is extremely unlikely to happen exactly as shown!

Yet more rain…

Tuesday, December 5th, 2006

It’s been quite wet - and windy - for the last few days. An with no letup in the wet weather due for the next week or so, it may be something to get used to. At least it is warm: last night was exceptionally warm with temperatures around 14°C at midnight!

Puddles

Christmas Weather 2006

Friday, December 1st, 2006

I have written an updated look at the Christmas Weather for 2006.

Ducks in the snowLast year I kept tabs on the forecasts for the weather on Christmas Day. I intend to do the same this year, but it’s still way to soon to be able to say anything at all. The first models to show anything for Christmas Day appear on 9th December.

However, I have just had a look forward to the 17th December and unfortunately, it looks like carrying on in much the same way as it has for the last couple of weeks with the weather being dominated by areas of low pressure from the Atlantic. This would lead to average or above average temperatures with periods of wind and rain and little chance for frosts.

September 2006 in Canterbury

Sunday, October 1st, 2006

September was a complete contrast to August, being warm and dry. Of particular note was the consistent warmth: September’s mean of 18.3C was the 2nd highest since before September 2004, being 1.1C warmer even than the preceding August. There were several hot days: 28.7C (11th), 28.6C (21st), 27.9C (12th) and 27.8C (6th). All these days were warmer than any September day of the last two years. On the 10th/11th, a diurnal range of 20.0C was recorded with the temperature rising from 8.7C to 28.7C. September was very dry with a total of only 17.0mm (26%) making it the driest month since before September 2004. Only 0.8mm was recorded during the first 21 days of the month. 30% of the month’s rainfall fell in the last 5 hours of the month: 2.3mm fell with a maximum rate of 82.3mm/hr between 07Z and 08Z on the 1st October. The lack of rain is attributed to just missing out on several showers during the middle of the month - it was noted that a number of heavy, thundery showers passed within two miles of here, so a small change in location may well have resulted in a significantly higher rainfall total.

September warmer than August

Saturday, September 30th, 2006

It is the last day of September and for a few days now it looks as though this month will be warmer than the preceding August here in Canterbury. The mean temperature here (based on averaging the daily maxima and minima) is currently 18.3°C for September; it was 17.2°C in August. Only two days have failed to reach 20°C and both of those were very close.

On the whole, the trend also follows for the rest of England. Philip Eden’s Climate UK site contains up-to-date estimates of the Central England Temperature (CET) value for the current month. Up to the 29th September, the September CET is quoted as 16.71°C (2.9degC above normal). It looks almost certain that this September will be the warmest in the CET series which covers nearly the last 350 years. It also looks certain that this month will be warmer than the preceding August - this has only happened 8 times previously in the series, with the most recent occurrence being in 1956 (the other years were 1891, 1890, 1865, 1784, 1750, 1737 and 1729).

The Met Office have issued a Press Release stating they are confident that this will be the warmest September on record for the United Kingdom.

I will update the summary for September this time tomorrow to reflect my readings from the last month.