Jonathan Stott

June 2007 in Canterbury was wet, most notably 19.1mm on the 7th and 26.7mm on the 19th (with 19.6mm of that falling between 1900Z and 2000Z with a maximum rate of 110.7mm/hr). The 19th was the wettest day since 23rd October 2006 and the 2nd wettest day since before September 2004. The month as a whole was the 4th wettest since before September 2004. The month was also mild, but that was characterised by consistently warm days rather than any hot days. The maximum temperature was only 24.8C on the 12th.

Table:
http://www.canterburyweather.co.uk/month/?table=1&month=6&year=2007
Charts:
http://www.canterburyweather.co.uk/month/?table=0&month=6&year=2007
Summary including daily notes:
http://www.canterburyweather.co.uk/month/?table=2&month=6&year=2007

Temperature
Mean            16.6 °C    (+2.3 degC*)
Mean Max        20.8 °C    (+2.1 degC*)
Abs. Max        24.8 °C    (12th)
Mean Min        12.5 °C    (+2.6 degC*)
Abs. Min         6.8 °C    (26th)

Rain
Total           79.5 mm    (153%*)
Days >  0.2mm   13   days
Days >  2.0mm    8   days
Days > 20.0mm    1   days
Max Rain (Day)  26.7 mm    (19th)
Max Rate       110.7 mm/hr (19th)

Pressure
Mean          1009.9 mb
Max           1023.7 mb
Min            993.7 mb

No wind comparisons are mentioned here owing to inadequate siting of the
anemometer.

*Compared with 1971-2001 averages at Wye.

Overall, 2006 was hotter, colder and wetter than 2005: the 3 warmest days since before September 2004 occurred during a 1-week spell in July (33.6C on the 19th, 32.6C on the 26th and 32.3C on the 21st). -6.4C on the 23rd January was colder than at any time in 2005. August was the wettest month (110.5mm); 23rd October was the wettest day (28.2mm) and September was the driest month (17.0mm) since before September 2004.

Of particular interest is the total rainfall situation, especially seeing as we are still restricted on water usage here in Canterbury. The good news is that there was more rain in 2006 than in 2005 - 572.8mm compared with 486.9mm. However, the average normal rainfall total for this part of Kent is around 727mm, so there’s still a significant deficit. In fact, the cumulative deficit for 2005 and 2006 is a staggering 394mm.

• 2006 Summary
• 2006 Charts
• 2006 Table

As is becoming normal, December was another month that was warmer than average, mainly due to a large number of very warm days. 17 days exceeded 10C (compared with 5 in December 2005), including 14.4C on the 4th and 13.9C on the 30th. Eight of the ten warmest December days from the last three years were recorded during December 2006. The month was characterised by two types of weather: wet and windy from the 1st to the 17th; cold, overcast and often foggy from the 18th to the 28th followed by a return to wet and windy weather from the 29th. A significant anticyclone caused the pressure to rise to its highest level since before September 2004, reaching 1042.3mb on the 22nd. This spell of weather was cool and overcast with a number of days of significant fog or low cloud. Rainfall was just short of average.

• December 2006 Summary
• December 2006 Charts
• December 2006 Table

September was a complete contrast to August, being warm and dry. Of particular note was the consistent warmth: September’s mean of 18.3C was the 2nd highest since before September 2004, being 1.1C warmer even than the preceding August. There were several hot days: 28.7C (11th), 28.6C (21st), 27.9C (12th) and 27.8C (6th). All these days were warmer than any September day of the last two years. On the 10th/11th, a diurnal range of 20.0C was recorded with the temperature rising from 8.7C to 28.7C. September was very dry with a total of only 17.0mm (26%) making it the driest month since before September 2004. Only 0.8mm was recorded during the first 21 days of the month. 30% of the month’s rainfall fell in the last 5 hours of the month: 2.3mm fell with a maximum rate of 82.3mm/hr between 07Z and 08Z on the 1st October. The lack of rain is attributed to just missing out on several showers during the middle of the month - it was noted that a number of heavy, thundery showers passed within two miles of here, so a small change in location may well have resulted in a significantly higher rainfall total.

• September Summary
• September Table
• September Charts

It is the last day of September and for a few days now it looks as though this month will be warmer than the preceding August here in Canterbury. The mean temperature here (based on averaging the daily maxima and minima) is currently 18.3°C for September; it was 17.2°C in August. Only two days have failed to reach 20°C and both of those were very close.

On the whole, the trend also follows for the rest of England. Philip Eden’s Climate UK site contains up-to-date estimates of the Central England Temperature (CET) value for the current month. Up to the 29th September, the September CET is quoted as 16.71°C (2.9degC above normal). It looks almost certain that this September will be the warmest in the CET series which covers nearly the last 350 years. It also looks certain that this month will be warmer than the preceding August - this has only happened 8 times previously in the series, with the most recent occurrence being in 1956 (the other years were 1891, 1890, 1865, 1784, 1750, 1737 and 1729).

The Met Office have issued a Press Release stating they are confident that this will be the warmest September on record for the United Kingdom.

I will update the summary for September this time tomorrow to reflect my readings from the last month.

So far the weather in September in Canterbury has been a complete contrast to August. I am beginning to wonder if we will ever see rain again!

The last rain of any significance here in Canterbury was way back on the 28th August, some 25 days ago. Since then we’ve only had 0.8mm - 0.5mm so far in the whole of September. So we have gone from having almost twice as much rain as usual in August to having hardly anything at all in September.

It’s been warm too. 28.7C on the 11th September was one of the highest September temperatures for quite a while here. Indeed in some places that day was the warmest September day for over 50 years. Today also looks like being remarkably warm with the temperature already at 25.4C (at 11:20am). The mean temperature for the whole of September is already 4.3 degrees C above normal; the mean maximum temperature is 5.4 degrees C above normal.

There does look to be some rain on the horizon though. The remains of Hurricane Gordon are currently just off the north coast of Galicia in Spain and are heading towards western Britain. While we won’t get the full force of the potentially gale-force winds, we look likely to get at least some rain. The low pressure are of ex-Gordon looks like heading to the west of here. The prospects for rain in Kent aren’t great though - only a couple of mm is forecast through to Saturday. Beyond then it looks like being a bit showery to start next week (possibly giving up to 10mm) and then returning to dry conditions.

This month is already the wettest of the last two years and the first since before September 2004 to rack up more than 100mm. The total this month currently stands at 100.8mm (to 7pm on 24th August).

The last two days have been exceptionally wet with 23.4mm recorded yesterday (10am 23rd to 10am 24th). This is the wettest day since the 13th October 2004. 21.6mm was also recorded on the 12th August 2006. The total rainfall since 3pm yesterday is now 35.1mm.

This contrasts dramatically with July when only 19.8mm was recorded for the whole month. The maximum temperature in July was a heady 33.6C compared with only 27.4C in August. The forecasts for the next few days until the end of the month is not too great either.

It certainly feels like the drought that was hyped all over the media is over. Indeed the Environment Agency say that reservoir and ground water levels for Kent and Sussex are normal or above normal for the time of year (but are below normal or significantly below normal around the London and Home Counties areas). The grass has recovered its greenness after being brown and parched at the start of the month and plants have gone beserk in a growing frenzy.

Hopefully September will bring some warm and dry weather and a chance to use up the charcoal that I bought at the start of the month!

Here in Kent we are in the middle of a drought. Or so all the water companies and media tell us. Our local water supply company, Mid Kent Water, has been granted a Drought Order (not yet currently in force) along with Southern Water which would allow them to prohibit certain water usage such as watering sports pitches and cleaning the exterior of buildings. The first Drought Order in eleven years was granted to Sutton and East Surrey Water and comes into force tomorrow (27th May).

This is rather contradictory to what is happening with the weather this month. May 2006 is already the wettest month in Canterbury since before September 2004. We have had nearly twice the long-term average precipitation already and there are still five days of the month to go. It has rained on the last eleven days. So is there still a drought on?

Well probably yes. The rain has come too late as most of it will evaporate or drain into rivers and out to sea. If the rain fell during the autumn or winter, there is much less evaporating allowing aquifers (underground water sources) and reservoirs to charge. So while water running into some rivers and streams now will find its way into the few reservoirs that there are, most will just disappear.

The cumulative deficit in rainfall for 2006 in Canterbury is still some 50mm. Including 2005 in the equation, since January 2005 we have missed out on some 290mm of rainfall - the total for 2005 and 2006 is 693mm when we should have had nearly 1000mm. Also, both the winters of 2004/5 and 2005/6 were dry, so reservoirs and aquifers didn’t get chance to recharge.

Perhaps the drought won’t bite as hard if the current wet month continues into June and July. At the moment the possibilty of even more draconian measures to stem the use of water is still quite likely in the south-east of England.

April was another mild and dry month. Although the month never felt particularly warm, it was characterised by very consisting slightly-above-average temperatures. 20C wasn’t reached at any point during the month. April was again dry, with less than half the expected rainfall. The total for the first four months of 2006 is now 118.9mm (the equivalent total for the first four months of 2005 was 152.0mm). Only 2 out of the last 20 months have exceeded the LTA rainfall. Of particular note is the dryness of the ground and the levels of the River Stour. I don’t think I’ve seen the river so low at this time of year in the 7 years that I’ve been in Canterbury - the level would more befit the end of July rather than the end of April.

• April 2006 summary
• April 2006 charts
• April 2006 table

For more on the weather in Canterbury see http://www.canterburyweather.co.uk/.